Date: Thu, 15 Apr 1999 12:18:58 -0700 From: "Matthew DeBell" <mdnopsamnet> Subject: Caveat on death rates as an indicator of safety
People are citing the low frequency of injury claims for Saabs as evidence that they are safe cars. Saabs do seem to be relatively safe cars, but I wish to offer a caveat. These insurance data are a reflection of the kinds of drivers who operate the cars as much as they are a reflection of the safety engineering. Low driver death rates do not prove that cars to well in accidents; they may indicate that the drivers are more cautious and/or better able to avoid accidents. As an example, consider the claims results from two essentially identical vehicles, the Dodge Neon and the Plymouth Neon. The Dodge has an overall death rate of 187% of average while the Plymouth has a rate only 119% of average. It looks like the Dodge is a lot more dangerous to drive than the Plymouth, but that makes no sense because, again, these are the same model under different badges. The difference has to be the drivers who buy the various brands, or chance. (The sample sizes are not large enough to offer much confidence that the Dodge would still be higher than the Plymouth in a much larger sample.) Since we know the driver is a tremendously important variable in accident rates, insurance loss reports cannot be taken at face value as an indicator of auto safety. The numbers I cite above come from a pamphlet put out by the Insurance Institute for Highway Safety. You can find them on their web site too: www.hwysafety.org is their home page, and the data are on http://www.hwysafety.org/crash/crashimg/ddrchart.pdf -- Matthew DeBell mdnopsamnet
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
