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Re: Correlation does not imply causation
Posted by Reality (more from Reality) on Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:54:29
In Reply to: Correlation does not imply causation, AdamB

, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 02:38:42

No kidding! That's the point of my original post. If you dig deeper, you'd notice that for a complex issue such as this one with multiple input factors in real life that are not possible to test for A/B control test, there is no way of distinguishing what is correlation and what is causal effect. There can only be hypothesis of causal effect trying to justify correlation. Therefore, I hypothecated that the causal effect was from the driver not having to speed or be axiously rush to appointment when they can make a phone call and let people know they are running slightly late.

"Scientific study" requires A/B control test to verify hypothesis. Anyone claiming to be doing "scientific study" yet operating in a field where A/B control test controlling all other variable is impossible, is nothing but a fraud. "Peer Review" has been practiced since the days of debating how many angels could dance on the tip of the pin, if not thousands of years earlier, when the term "canonic text" was invented. "Peer Review" is just a fancy term for intellectual inbreeding where no objective scientific test is possible (OTOH, where real objective A/B test is possible, Peer Review re-running those tests is indeed a very powerful scientific tool; in fact, part of the definition of Scientific Method).

posted by 24.91.39...

Posts in this Thread:

Cellphones and driving, Noel , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:28:12
- Re: Cellphones and driving, Craig, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:40:55
  - Re: Cellphones and driving, Justin VanAbrahams, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 15:32:40
    - Then ban all cops and military pilots, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:10:55
      - Ever drive with a cop?, nwas, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 09:47:20
        Where do you think the military pilots get their, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:36:09
        Well, some of it anyway..., Noel , Mon, 19 Dec 2011 12:36:29
        Agree! I've seen cops do stuff that'd get, Noel , Sun, 18 Dec 2011 11:40:39
      - Not too impressed cops/pilots - but speaking of Greek, AeroBaron, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:46:03
        The guy should be banned!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:37:53
        Yep on nanny, and su stuff es mi stuff NM, AeroBaron, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:55:55
      - I hold a radiotelephone operator's license, JohnA , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 10:43:48
        Do you honestly believe that a summer job skill set, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:42:54
        truck drivers/taxi drivers etc don't need licensing, JohnA , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 14:56:30
        Re: truck drivers/taxi drivers etc don't need licensing, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 07:09:06
        use of cellphone, JohnA , Sat, 17 Dec 2011 15:36:50
        Gullible fools still needed in the Jury box, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 13:56:54
- Here's a Study with N > 100,000,000, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:50:54
  - Dewey wins!, nwas, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 20:02:52
    - That's the exact position of the wannabe Nannies, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:18:56
      - Wrong, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:05:36
        Yes, You Are Wrong!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:36:25
        Missing the point...., plap, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:43:21
        Yes, You Are Missing the Point, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 12:05:02
        Sorry, but you're still missing the point, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:06:31
        You have no legal right to be protected from anything, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:50:30
        Stop arguing for the sake of arguing!, Noel , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:04:39
        Very good additional points, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 11:25:56
        Yawn, nwas, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 15:12:46
        Now you are speaking the truth, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:39:50
  - or maybe cars have gotten safer in the past decade, or, AeroEd , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:21:35
    - Don't ban those movies, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 20:11:46
      - Correlation does not imply causation, AdamB , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 02:38:42
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:54:29
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, AdamB , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 14:22:31
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:41:43
        automotive safety..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 03:54:21
        IIHS has been in business since 1959!, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 05:37:52
        Re: IIHS has been in business since 1959!, James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:17:42
        Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:20:31
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 13:22:37
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 20:31:00
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 06:02:55
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 07:33:57
        Re: Side tracking aside, you have it backwards again, James, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 10:44:56
        Please do not mischaracterise my POV, Reality, Sat, 17 Dec 2011 21:44:42
        I apologize..., James, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 07:35:34
        Re: I apologize..., Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:48:37
        Accident fatalities, Noel , Sun, 18 Dec 2011 05:18:25
        Re: Accident fatalities, Reality, Sun, 18 Dec 2011 14:56:36
        Re: Correlation does not imply causation, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 06:05:11
        One more important assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:14:47
        Re: One more important assumption, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:04:22
        Re: One more important assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:13:33
        Even a test like that assumes, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:07:28
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, TML, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:54:58
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:34:21
        once again, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:03
        File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant", Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:58:52
        Re: File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant", James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:43:34
        Do you honestly believe, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:03:12
        Re: Do you honestly believe, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:17:14
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:12:08
        Thanks for pointing out Adeptation/Adaptation, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:47:39
        study link, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:16:54
        another link, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:37:26
        Re: Even a test like that assumes, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 07:31:12
        Agree, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:53:20
        I'm not conviced there was a study to begin with, Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:21:20
        need to do research, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:24:46
        They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:20:32
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:50:11
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:20:07
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:28:58
        Re: They all have the wrong assumption, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:03:24
        Cell phones not the only distraction!, Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:37:07
        Exactly! What will they ban next?, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:50:45
        I kind of agree with you..., James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:02:20
        Re: I kind of agree with you..., Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:27:25
        Re: I kind of agree with you..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 04:06:54
        "It's not the end of the world", Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 05:48:17
        I don't disagree..., James, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 08:36:07
        By that logic, Reality, Fri, 16 Dec 2011 09:51:31
        Re: Cell phones not the only distraction!, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:47:56
        Texting probably the worst thing..., Noel , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:36:27
        round and around, jeff in MD , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:43:31
        Re: round and around, Noel , Fri, 16 Dec 2011 06:53:54
        Re: round and around, Real, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 22:23:17
        dialing!, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:55:37
        Voice Dialing and Voice to Text, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 11:10:25
- doesn't matter anyway, ryan, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:42:45
  - Texting while driving up 50 per cent in U.S., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:01:15
    - Yet vehicular fatality did not increase, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:55:46
      - BTW, I don't smoke at all, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 19:01:47
        Re: BTW, I don't smoke at all, Ultimated , Thu, 15 Dec 2011 04:59:56
        Re: BTW, I don't smoke at all, Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 05:57:59
    - keep me AWAY from these people! n/m, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:01:53
- Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:36:40
  - Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:48:41
    - I suspect the research is less than accurate., Noel , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:16:47
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Judge Edo, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:56:22
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Simon S, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:46:13
      - The truth - do your own test, nwas, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:15:28
        Exactly the opposite for me, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 21:06:33
        maybe you're a "supertasker"..., James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:28:56
        Hey, stop inflating my ego :-), Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:27:29
        Re: Exactly the opposite for me, James, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 08:24:13
      - Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:36:11
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:39:06
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 15:31:03
        Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:45:45
    - Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:56:05
      - Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:57:39
        Re: Cellphones and driving, Erik919kt , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 08:56:46
        Re: Cellphones and driving, TML, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 08:33:06
        Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 09:46:24

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