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Re: Yes, but...
Posted by Justin VanAbrahams [Email] (more from Justin VanAbrahams) on Wed, 14 Feb 2018 19:27:11
In Reply to: Yes, but..., JerseySaab [Profile/Gallery]
, Wed, 14 Feb 2018 12:20:30
That's a huge maybe. A 20 year old ICE car might need expensive repairs too. You don't even want to know the retail price of Ford/GM's new 10-speed auto box is... Or even their cute little direct-injected turbo triple. Being afraid of future costs is the exact same fear we all had in 2000 when cars started having air bags and traction control and other doodads and everyone panicked that used cars would be valueless and irreparable. Turns out by and large that was a lot of ado about nothing.
It's impossible to predict what a 20 year old used EV might look like, and while it's true some will be probably on the verge of needing new batteries, it's likely that some will already have had that work done and the new owner won't have to worry about it. Nobody knows.
The best example we can come up with right now are early 2nd gen Priuses, which everyone was *convinced* would be dropping dead due to battery issues and piling up in junkyards. Not only is that statistically false - most of those batteries are lasting double or triple what everyone anticipated - but what everyone thought was going to be a $5000 repair (and legitimately was for a while) is now a sub-$1000 DIY affair. Values for old Priuses with 200,000 and 300,000 miles are *staggering* because they are just that cheap to operate.
Closer to home, I think you're old enough to remember the time when replacing a turbo on a Saab was a $3000+ job. That was certainly the caution I was given when I bought my first used turbo, and I remember visiting Burlingame Saab with a friend in the very early '90s when they "gave her a deal" on a $2600 turbo for her c900SE. These days nobody thinks twice about a turbo - it's a visit to ebay or a junkyard or a DIY one evening - *if* you ever even need to do it. I mean, people replace turbos for fun these days. I know I have.
You can panic over the future or wait and see what happens. If all the BEVs drop dead at 10 years and it's prohibitively expensive to repair them, we won't buy used ones. If they last longer or end up affordable to repair, then we will. It's as simply as that. Condemning a technology because of one possible future really isn't that productive. The sky is falling didn't stop hydraulic brakes, automatic transmissions, turbochargers, antilock brakes, air bags, infotainment systems, satellite navigation, hybrid drivetrains, and it probably won't stop BEVs.
Like Elon Musk suggested, Don't Panic. :)
posted by 12.195.130...
Posts in this Thread:
- OT: Polite question to the Tesla S Owners here, MI-Roger , Fri, 9 Feb 2018 09:50:56
- Yes, the range is true, vvk, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 20:50:33
- Cost to fully charge a Tesla privately?, MI-Roger , Tue, 13 Feb 2018 18:10:28
- about 1/8 of my V8 sedan, vvk, Tue, 13 Feb 2018 21:28:52
- Definitely appears to be much cheaper than cost of gasoline, MI-Roger , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 04:44:34
- No road taxes on electrics - yet, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 06:14:48
- getting harder to find 9000's at that price point!, Snowmobile , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 09:22:01
- Re: getting harder to find 9000's at that price point!, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 10:02:52
- Re: getting harder to find 9000's at that price point!, Justin VanAbrahams, Wed, 14 Feb 2018 11:51:50
- Yes, but..., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 12:20:30
- Re: Yes, but..., Justin VanAbrahams, Wed, 14 Feb 2018 19:27:11 <-- Viewing This Message
- Re: getting harder to find 9000's at that price point!, Dave The Ice Age Knave , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 10:15:27
- Your results may vary, vvk, Wed, 14 Feb 2018 05:50:27
- Re: Air density reduction?, MI-Roger , Tue, 13 Feb 2018 17:59:24
- Re: OT: Polite question to the Tesla S Owners here, Dave The Ice Age Knave , Fri, 9 Feb 2018 19:52:13
- The problem with EV ranges...., Noel , Fri, 9 Feb 2018 14:16:10
- These kinds of trips are no problem at all, vvk, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 20:55:20
- Re: The problem with EV ranges...., EGD , Sun, 11 Feb 2018 18:16:18
- Idle fees, A1-turbo, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 06:07:24
- Re: The problem with EV ranges...., Snowmobile , Sat, 10 Feb 2018 06:03:34
- Re: The problem with EV ranges...., Craig, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 12:05:15
- I'm not an early adopter and think Teslas are, Noel , Sat, 10 Feb 2018 11:28:05
- Re: I'm not an early adopter and think Teslas are, No Snaab, Sat, 10 Feb 2018 15:58:01
- It depends. We can do the whole run in one day, Noel , Tue, 13 Feb 2018 11:09:35
- I agree 100%, MI-Roger , Sun, 11 Feb 2018 07:54:48
- Sad reality of vehicle range, MI-Roger , Sun, 11 Feb 2018 08:53:40
- 4 mph, vvk, Wed, 14 Feb 2018 04:02:33
- lease does not make any sense, vvk, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 21:02:47
- autopilot, Snowmobile , Tue, 13 Feb 2018 07:16:49
- Plug-In Hybrids, i.e. Chevy Volt, Bill Homer, Mon, 12 Feb 2018 19:38:34
- Chevrolet Bolt, A1-turbo, Sun, 11 Feb 2018 10:53:09
- Re: Sad reality of vehicle range, Dave The Ice Age Knave , Sun, 11 Feb 2018 09:44:19
- Current Tesla ranges, A1-turbo, Fri, 9 Feb 2018 12:02:13
- Re: OT: Polite question to the Tesla S Owners here, Justin VanAbrahams, Fri, 9 Feb 2018 09:54:30
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