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Date: Fri, 04 Oct 2002 16:37:27 +0100
From: Johannes H Andersen <johsnopsamanytime.co.uk>
Subject: Re: higher octane is good (long)


Ted Harris wrote: > > Like others, even though this is OT I can't let it go. The statistics taht > have been bandided about just don't tell the whole story and/or are inaccurate. > > You cannot evaluate a country or region's energy consumption without > considering both its population base and its level of development. Nor can you > take a snapshot in time of energy consumption and ignore the future. > > Yes, the US consumes somewhat over 25% of all the oil consumed in the world but > total North American oil consumption is somewhat lower than total consumption > among all developing Asian nations. All of these statistics come from the > OECD, Cambridge Energy Associates, the US Energy Information Administreation > and other middle-of-the-road sources. All are based on waht the energy > economics industry refers to as a "reference or base case" which means business > as usual projected into the future. > > 1) Overall growth in energy demand and in demand for nonrenewable energy > sources over the next twenty years will see China (followed by India) far > outstripping demand by any individual nation of the industrialized world. By > 2020 China will be, for example, the world's single largest emitter of carbon > dioxide. > > 2) While the US may be the largest consumer it has made dramatic strides to be > more efficient,much more dramatic than the rest of the world. From 1970 to > 2002 US energy demand per dollar of GDP has plummeted. During this same period > the US has reduced overall emissions of SOx, NOx and particulates by more than > 75% (in fact I believe most recent numbers approach 90%); this is an overall > absolute reduction while energy utilization has gone up. > > In summary, it is senseless to slam the US (or Western Europe for that matter) > in terms of eiterh oil or total energy utilization. just look at what will be > the case in China and the resto of the developnig world in less than 20 years. > > All of these statistics are widely available. So you are comparing US at present with 20 years projections for the developing world? I don't think you can call such projections 'statistics'. What about the projections for the US? But projections are inherently uncertain. If the areas you are talking about are affected by severe flooding or other natural disasters, then the projections will automatically fail. Johannes

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