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, Sat, 17 Dec 2005 10:19:32
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...I have done a great deal of research. The study has awesome flaws that immediately destroy its credibility:
1) It is a retrospective study.
2) It looks not at cars sold vs cars in a crash but at only cars that had been in a crash. What does that mean? If 1 million red cars are sold and 100 grey cars are sold, and 200 red cars get into an accident and 99 grey cars get into an accident, the study makes it look like the color red is at fault when in accuality it is grey that has a 99% chance of getting into trouble and red is actually safer.
3) They do not compare models of cars, only colors. Most people buy RED Ferrari's, not green or silver. So, mosltly red Ferrari's will be in crashes. This study does not allow us to break car crashes into type of car and color. What does that mean? If people all bought green Ferrari's, that might skew results more towards green. If cheaper more affordable flavored cars mostly come in grey, than the several million other car buyers will skew results towards grey. They needed to look at what colors car manufacturers use the most. (If you can only buy grey cars then all accidents will be from grey cars and the results are being skewed by a confounding factor).
4) By not breaking down by car model, the study does not tell what cars are most at risk. If SUV's all roll over in New Zealand, and everyone buys an SUV, and they are all painted red by the manufacturers, then red will be unfairly targetted, when really the problem is that people are all driving unsafe SUV's that are coincidentally red.
5) If grey is a new color to New Zealand, than no will have had a chance to buy grey and no crashes will be in Grey cars. Is Grey a new fad there? No one checked so no one knows. Also, If it is a new fad, then new cars with safer designs and less worn parts will of course be safer, where-as old cars that are not grey will be falling apart and unsafe.
The study needs repeating. All new cars being sold need to be followed over their lifetimes. Color and car age need to be kept track of. Results need to be sorted by, make model, age of car, age of driver. Risk of crash needs to be expressed by car type, and risk of color needs to be expressed as a percentage of accidents in all cars of that color and model divided by all cars of all colors sold of that given car model. There are many more problems with this study, but I think this is enough of an example.
, Sat, 17 Dec 2005 10:19:32, Sat, 17 Dec 2005 11:16:24
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