Re: then we'd better remember the history correctly - Saab General Bulletin Board - Saabnet.com
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Re: then we'd better remember the history correctly
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Posted by Jim (more from Jim) on Thu, 28 Mar 2002 15:50:05 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: those who don't remember history are doomed to repeatit, compaqted, Thu, 28 Mar 2002 10:29:40
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The oil price spike of the 70's had a lot more to do with the failed fiscal/monetary policies of the US than the conspiracy theory that you postulated. The Brentwood global monetary system hinged upon the US being the honest guardian of the global money supply. The combined weight of the domestic "Great Society" social engineering and shooting war in Vietnam, plus the naivette of the politicians then in charge, let to the final "closing of gold window" during Nixon administration, which basicly broke the promise that the US central bank made to foreign central banks regarding exchange US dollar with gold at fixed preferential rate. What followed was general inflation.

As soon as the closing of gold window was announced, supply-side economists predictted immediately that oil price would go sky high. That was long before the Yom Kippur hostilities broke out, and long before the public heard of OPEC. Oil price rose in relation to the US Dollar, but did not rise if you measure its relative pricing to gold. What happened was the debasing of the Dollar by a bunch of politicians who decided that printing money was the way out of domestic malaise, foreign strife, and the political pressure to reduce trade deficit (ie. preserving deomestic jobs). We are at the stage where gold is once again above $300 an ounce, after languishing below $280 for nearly half a decade. That is a history lesson worth remembering; hopefully O'Neil is wiser thirty years later.

To the extent that fuel guzzling SUV's roaming the land, they are just a reserve for consumption cuts should there be a oil shock in the future. The fact that the producing countries have to cooridnate production cuts to maintain stability should be a clue that oil shortage is not a reality.

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