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Sample of one versus a large population
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Posted by Ari [Email] (#2847) [Profile/Gallery] (more from Ari) on Wed, 1 Oct 2008 09:34:03 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: On the mini-spares..., Craig, Wed, 1 Oct 2008 07:31:57
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OK-
Maybe the lawyers set the mini-spare requirements to avoid liability. That's because the car company has a few million cars out there. In that population, you're going to have a lot of mini-spares used. Some will be a little under-inflated. Some will be at the lower end of the acceptable quality spectrum.

When designing the limits, the limits have to be set for the full range of a large population of tires. And the car company has to be able to assure all those tires will work, as it only takes a few lawsuits to ruin your day.

Now, if you're the one with the mini-spare that blows, you don't care about the probabilities.

So yes, if you take a car with four mini-spares, you can probably run the lap of America. Of course, with the tire company participating, you know you got four hand-selected tires, and they're monitoring the air pressure, load, and wear at every stop.

As a friend once told me as he thawed the frozen gas line with a road flare - "It's perfectly safe as long as you don't do anything stupid." Bottom line - if something has a limit written on it, you exceed that limit at your peril. Now, if you monitor the condition, make sure all the critical parameters are perfect (tire pressure, etc.), you improve your chances of an uneventful trip. And most designs have lots of margin built in. But trusting margin on a regular basis is bad practice.

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