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I pretty much saw it the way Silver did Posted by Notnoel [Email] (#23) [Profile/Gallery] (more from Notnoel) on Wed, 21 Nov 2012 13:13:56 In Reply to: Agreed - very accurate when aggregated, Scott Paterson [Profile/Gallery] , Wed, 21 Nov 2012 11:30:54 Members do not see ads below this line. - Help Keep This Site Online - Signup |
When you looked at Pennsylvania for instance, one poll after another, after another, after another all going the same direction made Foxes read on the "bias" more than a bit specious. What Silver did was look at preceding years and see the polls inherent inaccuracies and correct for it ("classic Bayesian" analysis, something I barely remember from stats class 30 years ago).
It's like when you play blackjack, you work the odds. Oh sure, you can win doing what I call "the cosmic thing" and upping your bid to 10 times normal (guessing that it is your time): you may get it right, you may also get your ass handed to you.
BTW, I watched the day after election day re-run of the Daily show last night with Silver on. He did blow the North Dakota Senate race - the Dems won that one and he called it for the GOP - how ironic.
->Posting last edited on Wed, 21 Nov 2012 13:16:52.
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