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Polls are only as good as the samples
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Posted by Noel [Email] (more from Noel) on Thu, 22 Nov 2012 07:08:41 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Polls, No Snaab, Wed, 21 Nov 2012 09:39:17
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I live in New Hampshire, theoretically a swing state with a whopping 4 electoral votes, and we were getting as many as 8 polling calls a day. Some were robo-calls, some with live interviewers.
My office phone is a residential line at the same address, (~150 digits apart) so it is often called just before or after the house line. So it seems the auto-dial systems are not truly dialing randomly. This may interject some bias depending on how phone numbers are assigned.

More importantly, I think the polls also missed a lot of people because so many folks have shifted to cell phones as their primary phone--especially the 18-30 year old demographic and many minorities. So they go totally uncounted in polls and the voting of this group clearly steered the election.

Also, I know for a fact that people lie on pre-election polls.

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