"This time it's different."
"House is something you can live in, so it can never go down in price."
"The risk is limited to the sub-prime market."
. . .

These are just some of the lines we heard for the US market in the last few years. I live in one of the most desirable neighborhoods in New England, which has so far weathered the real estate bust least damaged in the US . . . yet I have seen $6million asking price slashed to $4 million, still no taker. One of the houses that I was interested in a few years ago came on the market at $2.3mil, the house came to my attention when asking price dropped to $1.5mil; I made an offer for $800k, yes while the asking was still $1.5mil! It eventually sold for $1.05mil two years ago. Now the market comparable estimate is about $800k for that house, and still heading down. Obviously, it's not a piece of sub-prime real estate; previous owner had the house free and clear. It's in one of the most desirable towns in New England, within 30min from Boston, 5 acres of land, on a sizable lake with your own private beach steps from the house! The entire market for $600k+ houses is practically frozen in the US.

What's happening in Canada is the result of US "stimulus" causing massive current account surplus in China, where people do not trust their own government and need a place to park money . . . and so far they have found Canadian and Australian real estate. Canada and Australia having only about 20-30million people each, roughly the size of a big US or Chinese city (like NYC, LA, Shanghai, Shenzhen, etc.), there simply isn't the market depth to absorb either money inflow or outflow without massive price fluctuation. What we are seeing now/recent-past is the inflow phase. IMHO, when the mad chase stops, the outflow phase will prove quite tramatic, as not only the new money parkers will want to get out but also Canadians who have property/retirement-kitty waiting to sell. The retreat will be quite dramatic, once again, due to the lack of market depth. When all is said and done in a few years, the whole process may well be recognized as a way for the NY banking cartel to take over Canadian banks.







posted by 96.233.42...

• Alright you Canadians, No Snaab, Wed, 24 Nov 2010 20:51:19
  • I thought this would be about two Thanksgiving holidays, MI-Roger , Sat, 27 Nov 2010 10:54:30
  • what gives? low interest rates ..., Trev, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 14:10:21
  • Echo bubbles, Reality, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 09:51:35
    • while I partially agree..., James, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 19:04:42
      • Re: while I partially agree..., Bill Homer , Fri, 26 Nov 2010 07:46:32
        • But at the same time..., Noel, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 14:43:47
        • it has been a contractor gravy train..., James, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 08:11:32
      • Re: while I partially agree..., Reality, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 20:27:19 <-- Viewing This Message
        • Re: while I partially agree..., James, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 08:32:49
          • Re: while I partially agree..., Reality, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 10:16:04
            • Re: while I partially agree..., James, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 12:15:02
              • Re: while I partially agree..., Reality, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 13:10:00
                • buyer encouragement..., James, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 16:41:53
                  • Re: buyer encouragement..., Reality, Fri, 26 Nov 2010 18:17:47
                    • left vs right, James, Sat, 27 Nov 2010 09:02:34
                      • Multi-Dimensional, Reality, Sun, 28 Nov 2010 17:45:48
                        • balance + the Nolan chart, James, Mon, 29 Nov 2010 08:58:56
                          • Re: balance + the Nolan chart, Tim, Mon, 29 Nov 2010 19:18:09
                            • I'll guess I'll bite one last time I guess..., James, Tue, 30 Nov 2010 03:53:50
                              • I was listening to the same NPR segment on Monday, Reality, Thu, 2 Dec 2010 22:42:27
                                • a different angle..., James, Sun, 5 Dec 2010 03:50:31
                                • NPR?, James, Sat, 4 Dec 2010 15:07:16
                                  • Re: NPR?, Reality, Tue, 7 Dec 2010 15:30:17
                                    • Re: NPR?, James, Wed, 8 Dec 2010 11:36:49
                                      • Agreement, Reality, Wed, 8 Dec 2010 14:58:07
                                        • Re: Agreement, James, Wed, 8 Dec 2010 16:13:40
  • Re: Alright you Canadians, James, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 08:39:28
  • Re: Alright you Canadians, JohnA , Thu, 25 Nov 2010 07:43:14
  • Re: Alright you Canadians, gilbertb, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 07:15:06
  • Same down here in Australia..., sab, Wed, 24 Nov 2010 21:32:32
    • You haven't seen stupid house prices, No Snaab, Thu, 25 Nov 2010 07:56:00

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