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No. I was talking progress. Measurable, gradual, 15-year progress. Not leaps.
Your mother was 10-15 years older then, and although I admire her optimism, I think a whole new generation of Russians are at the reins now who are the same 10-15 years younger than the aparachiks your mother was forced to deal with.
Leaders among these new people (like the Asians) have gone to better institutions of higher learning in the US and Europe, including to business schools and engineering schools. Russia's natural ally, India, has the second largest computer-savvy critical-expertise mass in the world.
The Duma has a legislative agenda projecting the passing of copy-cat legislation, mostly originating in Europe, at about 125 pieces per month during the current sitting. Even private property is going ahead, although not on a federal basis, but on a competitive, regional basis.
History is one thing, and for sure, it's not to be forgotten, but I refuse to believe Russian DNA is any different from US DNA. Russian oil and gas projects in Viet Nam are succeeding where others fell by the wayside. Oil from Sakhalin is in new hands including Shell's. The oil and gas industry is the most senior industry in the world for working in political climes as disparate as there are types of hydrocarbons they extract. Hell, a Russian firm just bought the Getty(?) refining and marketing outlets in the US.
Check your ring of fire; check in particular for an EXXON-Mobil sponsored looksee at a security-org, first cousin to NATO, made up of 5 or 6 nations in the area. Check for recent progress Lord Robertson is making with Russia on a NATO-Russia basis. Check what Russians want (to be 'normal') and how fast the middle class is growing to make sure there are no oligarchs - ever - in charge anymore on the political side although they may be on the business side. Find out where Russians are (http://www.russiavotes.org) based on Scottish-generated information.
The Russians were dupes for many years - years where their leadership knew, but Russians didn't, that they were far, far behind the west. I don't think they'll take it anymore.
We may have to take some water in our democratic wine for a generation while Putin and those who believe in his kind of rule make some changes but in the end, Russia is (a) not going back (b) not going facist (c) not going to be less than Canada in the long run. Read Fukuyama. Read Robert Wright's 'Non-Zero'.
When Asian Tiger economies collapsed in '98 (as did Latin America including Mexico) and the rouble collapsed too, there were boo-birds all over saying real progress was a chimera; that the Tigers were pussies. Then, they bounced back, including Mexico where the US stuck its financial neck out a mile. A large part of Russia's rebound was tied to the necessity for local manufacturers to take up demand for western goods that Russians could no longer afford.
Who's to say Russia is stuck with a DNA string incapable of progress of any sort? China, lacking any semblance of a democracy, is a darling with US investors. China's cement production (one sure measure of progress) is by far and away the fastest growing in the world; perhaps even the largest output. Russia is plunging out on two fronts, mixing democratic reforms with industrial progress and first divested itself of state-owned assets so that now, Russia the state owns just over 25% of what's left. China never went this far. In the long run, I'd be betting on Russia. Russia has room to grow. Lots of it.
Cheers; John A.
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