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Reality Check!! don't you love it when statistics work
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Posted by LeoNL [Email] (more from LeoNL) on Fri, 4 Nov 2005 12:59:28 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Reality Check? Re: Worst States For Deer Accidents -, Paul S., Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:05:46
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Well, on the 13 miles I commute to work, I see on average about 2 or 3 'fresh' deer carcasses per week this time of year. We had one in our front yard last week.

And that is in NY, which isn't even on the list.

Let's try to extrapolate this:

1/3 deer per day over 13 miles, is one per 40 miles per day.

4000 per day over the whole US averaged over a year. Let's assume that all incidents occur in 4 months in the fall, that is 12000 per day Sept-Dec.

In order to meet the 1 deer per 40 miles per day metric, this requires 480,000 miles of road where deer may get hit.

Probably there are lots of areas where there are no deer at all, like the Arizona desert, downtown Manhattan, etc, so let's assume only half the roads in the US are prone to deer hits. This requires 960,000 miles of road in the US.

I did some googling, and found this link that shows public road lengths for the US: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs01/hm20.htm

There is a total of 4 million miles of public rural roads in the US, 2 million of which are local, so those will be less prone to deer hits due to lower driving speeds (although the one in my front yard proves the exception to that rule). This leaves 1 million miles of public roads in the US.

Bingo! Don't you love it when things work out...



posted by 199.197.1...


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