Reality Check!! don't you love it when statistics work - Saab General Bulletin Board - Saabnet.com
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Reality Check!! don't you love it when statistics work
Posted by LeoNL [Email] (more from LeoNL) on Fri, 4 Nov 2005 12:59:28
In Reply to: Reality Check? Re: Worst States For Deer Accidents -, Paul S., Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:05:46
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Well, on the 13 miles I commute to work, I see on average about 2 or 3 'fresh' deer carcasses per week this time of year. We had one in our front yard last week.
And that is in NY, which isn't even on the list.
Let's try to extrapolate this:
1/3 deer per day over 13 miles, is one per 40 miles per day.
4000 per day over the whole US averaged over a year. Let's assume that all incidents occur in 4 months in the fall, that is 12000 per day Sept-Dec.
In order to meet the 1 deer per 40 miles per day metric, this requires 480,000 miles of road where deer may get hit.
Probably there are lots of areas where there are no deer at all, like the Arizona desert, downtown Manhattan, etc, so let's assume only half the roads in the US are prone to deer hits. This requires 960,000 miles of road in the US.
I did some googling, and found this link that shows public road lengths for the US: http://www.fhwa.dot.gov/ohim/hs01/hm20.htm
There is a total of 4 million miles of public rural roads in the US, 2 million of which are local, so those will be less prone to deer hits due to lower driving speeds (although the one in my front yard proves the exception to that rule). This leaves 1 million miles of public roads in the US.
Bingo! Don't you love it when things work out...
posted by 199.197.1...
Posts in this Thread:
- Worst States For Deer Accidents - PA MI IL OH GA MN..., Scott Paterson , Fri, 4 Nov 2005 09:37:06
- PA #1!!!!, Dan , Fri, 4 Nov 2005 21:03:23
- From the 'insurance claim hall of fame'..., LeoNL, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 13:02:41
- Indiana is only number 8???, Indiana Saab, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 12:56:26
- I very nearly got one Monday, Rod , Fri, 4 Nov 2005 12:47:53
- It's a Serious Problem, Greg Abbott , Fri, 4 Nov 2005 12:37:47
- Need more wolves. n/m, Noel, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:43:31
- Oh dear a small furry creature story, jonathan, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:42:27
- Deer in Washington, DC, washaero, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:40:30
- I can think if a better way., PhillySaaber, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:36:46
- Reality Check? Re: Worst States For Deer Accidents -, Paul S., Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:05:46
- no NY?! . nm, elliott, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 10:02:08
- I can vouch for Ohio!, Randy Thatcher , Fri, 4 Nov 2005 09:56:41
- I got one in Utah, Rafe, Fri, 4 Nov 2005 09:56:37
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