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Re: wouldn't it be cool if...
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Posted by SENewhouse (more from SENewhouse) on Fri, 2 Jan 2009 11:03:12 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Re: wouldn't it be cool if..., Red93SEInBrklyn, Thu, 1 Jan 2009 15:13:58
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Porsche (the holding company) owns 35% of VW, and is seeking more. Management has committed to not splitting off Audi. Now, look at the business model: Where would Saab fit? Why would any of the three companies look at another fwd / awd passenger car that would compete with Audi and VW A4 and Passat lines? What would be the potential return on investment? Could happen, but I can't see it, even at a fire-sale price for Saab. Saab's demise would help drive customers to existing Audi and VW models.

BMW seems also to be a long shot. It's business model is solid, but taking some hits on cost and volume. It offers both rwd and awd models in a much broader range than Saab. Again, what is the business case for taking on a car company outside Germany that represents a fractional percentage of total sales and would compete -- to a limited degree, anyway -- with existing BMW models? BMW's experience with acquisitions in the U.K. wasn't very good, and I can't see the Quandt family (principal shareholders) generating much enthusiasm for Saab.

Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs would have huge cultural integration challenges, and both those economies are currently in retraction (e.g. where does the cash come from?). The only Indian manufacturer with the scope to take on Saab and succeed is Tata. And Mr. Tata has his hands full with Jaguar and domestic backlash on Nano manufacturing sites.

There may be white knight somewhere, but so far I haven't seen even the tip of his lance. Would be thrilled if someone could demonstrate otherwise.

SEN

posted by 72.34.3...

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