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...When asked in the paper’s Q&A section whether global warming is causing more hurricanes, Emanuel responded, “No.” The global annual frequency of hurricanes is about 90, plus or minus 10 and “there is no indication whatsoever of a long-term trend in this number,” Emanuel said.
Asked whether it would be “absurd to attribute the Katrina disaster to global warming,” Emanuel responded, “Yes, it would be absurd” – a response that stands in stark contrast to Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.’s recent attempt to use Emanuel’s research to link global warming with Katrina.
When asked whether “we are seeing more hurricane-caused damage in the U.S. and elsewhere,” Emanuel responded, “There is a huge upward trend in hurricane damage in the U.S., but all or almost all of this is due to increasing coastal population and building in hurricane-prone areas. When this increase in population and wealth is accounted for, there is no discernible trend left in the hurricane damage data.”
The absence of a “discernible trend” in hurricane damage is a “simple matter of statistics” according to Emanuel. “There are far too few hurricane landfalls to be able to discern any trend. Consider that up until Katrina, Hurricane Andrew was the costliest hurricane in U.S. history. But it occurred in an inactive year; there were only 7 hurricanes and tropical storms… it would take at least another 50 years to detect any long-term trend in U.S. landfalling hurricane statistics…,” he wrote.
The final question in the Q&A section is, “OK, maybe we won’t see global warming effects in landfalling hurricanes for another 50 years or so, but shouldn’t we still be worried about it?”
Emanuel’s response captures the essence of the insurance industry’s problem with natural disasters:
“The answer to this question is largely a matter of one’s geographical and time horizons. For U.S.-centric concerns over the next 30-50 years, by far the most important hurricane problem we face is demographic and political. Consider that Katrina, as horrible as it was, was by no means unprecedented, meteorologically speaking. More intense storms have struck the U.S. coastline long ago. The big problem is the headlong rush to tropical coastlines, coupled with federal and state policies that subsidize the risk incurred by coastal development. Private property insurance is heavily regulated by each state, and political pressure keeps rates low in high-risk regions like tropical coastlines, thus encouraging people to build flimsy structures there. (Those living in low-risk regions pay for this in artificially high premiums.) Federal flood insurance pays for storm surge damage, and like private insurance, its rates do not reflect the true risk. We are subsidizing risky behavior and should not be surprised at the result.”...
http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,168847,00.html
, Thu, 8 Sep 2005 20:17:59
, Fri, 9 Sep 2005 13:04:05, Tue, 13 Sep 2005 05:44:31, Fri, 9 Sep 2005 12:36:51, Fri, 9 Sep 2005 15:00:40
, Thu, 8 Sep 2005 17:22:24
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