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A wonderful thread! First thoughts....
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Posted by Noel [Email] (more from Noel) on Tue, 10 Jun 2008 13:12:18 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: What are your 10 year predictions on oil/cars/society?, Caarma [Profile/Gallery] , Tue, 10 Jun 2008 06:42:19
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In the U.S. we'll see a dramatic shift to more fuel efficient cars. (This is already happening.) I just spent 2 weeks in Europe and everyone gets along fine in small to medium (Saab-sized) cars, mostly diesels, something I notice each time I go across the pond. The mix of cars on our roads will change. More micro-cars, like Smart cars, will show up in cities and suburbs.

Cities will make moves to keep cars out of central areas, much as London has done.

More and better public transport in urban areas, possibly funded by fuel tax dollars as it is in Europe.

The cars will be diesel, bio-power variations, hybrids and electrics in 10 years. In 20 years the internal combustion engine will be all but gone for most vehicles.

Rail will grow for long haul freight transport, and passenger rail will begin to expand. Long haul trucking will decline. Not for giggles is Warren Buffett investing big-time in freight trains. The combination of containers/trains/trucks will move freight. But much work (and big $$$) are needed to give trains the coast to coast speed of trucks versus their current crawl.

Airlines will continue reducing service to some locations and there may be less business travel as more meetings can be done virtually with emerging technologies.

We'll see a shift in how/where "knowledge workers" work. There could well be government incentives to companies who have X% of people telecommuting (I hear Google already gets one from the state of California). In most "knowledge" jobs, it really isn't necessary to be in an office all the time. Just imagine the impact if everyone who could worked from home one day a week. The fuel savings would be enormous, and there would be less overall pressure on roads, vehicles, etc.

Hopefully our sprawling suburbs will change to better accommodate bicycles, motor scooters, etc. Stores may change to enable shopping to be more local instead of several miles away. (this is probably more than 10 years out).

That's a start on my take.
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