Re: Yes, but... - Saab General Bulletin Board -

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Re: Yes, but...
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Posted by Justin VanAbrahams [Email] (#32) [Profile/Gallery] (more from Justin VanAbrahams) on Wed, 14 Feb 2018 19:27:11 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Yes, but..., JerseySaab [Profile/Gallery] , Wed, 14 Feb 2018 12:20:30
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That's a huge maybe. A 20 year old ICE car might need expensive repairs too. You don't even want to know the retail price of Ford/GM's new 10-speed auto box is... Or even their cute little direct-injected turbo triple. Being afraid of future costs is the exact same fear we all had in 2000 when cars started having air bags and traction control and other doodads and everyone panicked that used cars would be valueless and irreparable. Turns out by and large that was a lot of ado about nothing.

It's impossible to predict what a 20 year old used EV might look like, and while it's true some will be probably on the verge of needing new batteries, it's likely that some will already have had that work done and the new owner won't have to worry about it. Nobody knows.

The best example we can come up with right now are early 2nd gen Priuses, which everyone was *convinced* would be dropping dead due to battery issues and piling up in junkyards. Not only is that statistically false - most of those batteries are lasting double or triple what everyone anticipated - but what everyone thought was going to be a $5000 repair (and legitimately was for a while) is now a sub-$1000 DIY affair. Values for old Priuses with 200,000 and 300,000 miles are *staggering* because they are just that cheap to operate.

Closer to home, I think you're old enough to remember the time when replacing a turbo on a Saab was a $3000+ job. That was certainly the caution I was given when I bought my first used turbo, and I remember visiting Burlingame Saab with a friend in the very early '90s when they "gave her a deal" on a $2600 turbo for her c900SE. These days nobody thinks twice about a turbo - it's a visit to ebay or a junkyard or a DIY one evening - *if* you ever even need to do it. I mean, people replace turbos for fun these days. I know I have.

You can panic over the future or wait and see what happens. If all the BEVs drop dead at 10 years and it's prohibitively expensive to repair them, we won't buy used ones. If they last longer or end up affordable to repair, then we will. It's as simply as that. Condemning a technology because of one possible future really isn't that productive. The sky is falling didn't stop hydraulic brakes, automatic transmissions, turbochargers, antilock brakes, air bags, infotainment systems, satellite navigation, hybrid drivetrains, and it probably won't stop BEVs.

Like Elon Musk suggested, Don't Panic. :)

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