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One can also buy a ride on a Russian rocket
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Posted by Noel [Email] (more from Noel) on Mon, 23 Apr 2012 10:48:36 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: Re: Look up SpaceShipTwo and WhiteKnightTwo, Reality, Mon, 23 Apr 2012 09:41:22
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but that doesn't make it commercially viable. And as JoeyChess points out, the SpaceShip One and Two are smaller, private versions of the shuttle. They can take a few people on what is more of an exotic thrill ride than a practical mode of transport.

Costs are not simply a low volume of production issue. No hypersonic aircraft is going to be cheap to build--or operate. That means for a JFK to SYD rocket to really work there would have to be sufficient paying passengers to fill the seats, and the flights would have to be pretty frequent. While rich people would be the first takers, I doubt they are a large enough group on which to base a real business, given the enormous up front development and operational costs.

Some comparison... According to Kayak.com, this June you can get a r/t flight from JFK to SYD for under $2000 in coach and about $7300 in business class. It takes 25 hours. Those are big planes, A330, A340, 747, 777, etc., with lots of people (280-350 per flight) sharing the costs.

Do you really think there's a practical way to move even half that many at hypersonic speeds, and enough demand for very short flights, done day-in and day-out, to cover the development costs and make such travel an economic reality?

It will no doubt be done, but it's probably half a century away. Consider the pace of development in commercial aviation: The first passenger jets came out in the Fifties: The Vicount, the Comet, the 707, etc. They flew at about 500-550 mph, held up to 200-odd people. Today's big jets hold more people but go only slightly (if at all) faster. The Concorde held only 120 passengers flew 2-3X as fast, catered to rich folks and still never made a profit. I find it disappointing that we're still flying airplanes that don't go faster but there's not a quick easy answer to doing this, no matter where the money is coming from.

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