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Long term or short term?
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Posted by Noel [Email] (more from Noel) on Sat, 30 Apr 2011 06:36:04 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: High gas prices, friend or foe?, No Snaab, Fri, 29 Apr 2011 20:43:22
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Long term and big picture they are probably good. But short term and personalized they are pretty bad.

In the mid-long term --5 to 10 years-- people will shift to cars with greater fuel efficiency (as Europe did decades ago), many people will commute less, more public transport will emerge, and maybe our so-called governments (state and federal) will get their acts together to help make some of this work.

Short term, it will get worse. I fully expect $6/gallon by 2012. More economical cars will ease the pain a bit, so will more car-pooling and telecommuting. These changes will be hard for many people, but everyone will adjust.

The difficulty in America is that we've been raised with and spoiled by cheap gas. People think it's a right. This has made private transport the preferred way to get around and limited public transport to urban areas. As a result, our infrastructure lacks the flexibility to adapt to these higher prices --we mostly don't have enough viable alternatives-- and the cost of building things like new train lines and expanding public transportation in suburban and even exurban areas is very high and comes just when our economy is on the ropes.

There's a whole lot of moving parts to this and it's going to get worse before it gets better.

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