More like $20/gallon in order to justify a plug-in - Saab General Bulletin Board - Saabnet.com
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More like $20/gallon in order to justify a plug-in
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Posted by Tim (more from Tim) on Thu, 18 Oct 2012 19:10:14 Share Post by Email
In Reply to: I'm curious, No Snaab, Thu, 18 Oct 2012 04:14:23
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Plug-in's are for people who have commute distance around 20miles. At 200 work days per year, that's only 4000 miles, or a driving pattern of about 5000 miles a year, just about what I do. Even my 20mpg wagon only consumes 250gallons a year at that rate. At $4/gal, that's merely $80/mo for the entire gas expense, nowhere close to justifying taking the depreciation on a new electric car even if electricity were free. At $6/gal, that rises to about $120 for gas expense vs. about $60-80 for electricity depending on your electric company, still nowhere near paying for depreciating a $40k car plus the increased insurance on a new car. At $20/gallon, the numbers may become favorable depending on what electricity price would be when energy is that expensive; if the electricity price stays at current levels, there might be a viable industry for micro gasoline-brewing machines that can take electricity and natural gas and turn that into gasoline at home (i.e. skipping the road tax just like electric cars currently do).

Conventional hybrids currently can justify the depreciation cost for people racking up tons of miles a year because
(1) their gas mileage at long distance travel is very good because they don't have to carry a heavy battery to run in electric-only mode for a long time;
(2) the NiMH battery has a very long service life (unlike the Li-Ion batteries in plug-in's), hence lower depreciation cost.

If I were doing 20k miles a year or more, i.e. 100miles or more per work day, I'd consider the 34mpg high way BMW 328i conventional gasoline car before considering any plug-in's. The regular hybrid Prius with 50mpg may have some appeal from a pure operating cost point of view, but not the Volt with the heavy battery weighing the long range gas consumption to 34mpg.

posted by 75.69.1...


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