Re: File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant" - Saab General Bulletin Board - Saabnet.com
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Re: File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant"
Posted by James [Email] (more from James) on Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:43:34
In Reply to: File that 3rd possiblity under "insigificant", Reality, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 09:58:52
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I am inclined to suspect 3 is the most likely scenario (based on things like the more controlled lab testing, and my own experiences wrt cell phones in cars... ymmv if you are a "supertasker")... so you say you're including 3 in 2... but that's twisting it (bordering on erroneous) given the way you've worded 2 in your previous post:
"The negative impact of cell phone use on driving is insignificant to negligible"
Let's say (hypothetically) that cell phone use increased fatalities by 50%, and other factors (safer cars etc) independently have decreased fatalities by 50%. All vs some norm set in the past (though be careful of using the 70's as a norm with all those platform shoes, ha!). The net result is 75% fewer fatalities (almost 30% fewer! that sounds familiar!)... in this hypothetical scenario, would you say that the negative impact of cell phone use (50%) is insignificant compared to the positive impact of the other factors (50%)? In this hypothetical scenario, banning cell phone use would drop the fatality rate to 50% of what it was in the past.
I in no way mean to imply those numbers are accurate. I simply made them up to clarify the fallacy in your statement.
In this "experiment" over time, multiple variables have changed. It is difficult to make conclusions based on real world data alone. That is about all that you can really say... and fair enough...
Nowadays with bluetooth + hands free, I think that's a pretty reasonable solution, to at least reduce the level distraction... I think the law here (which bans cell phone use, but not hands free) has some component to deal with other distractions (shaving, reading the paper, etc) also...
James...
posted by 216.59.23...
Posts in this Thread:
- Cellphones and driving, Noel, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:28:12
- Re: Cellphones and driving, Craig, Thu, 15 Dec 2011 10:40:55
- Here's a Study with N > 100,000,000, Reality, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 18:50:54
- doesn't matter anyway, ryan , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 12:42:45
- Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 06:36:40
- Re: Cellphones and driving, JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:48:41
- I suspect the research is less than accurate., Noel, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:16:47
- Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Judge Edo, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 17:56:22
- Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., Simon S, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 14:46:13
- The truth - do your own test, nwas, Wed, 14 Dec 2011 13:15:28
- Re: I suspect the research is less than accurate., JerseySaab , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 10:36:11
- Re: Cellphones and driving, JohnA , Wed, 14 Dec 2011 07:56:05
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